CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-11-27T06:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27889/-1
CME Note: Wide S/SW filament eruption seen in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is filament eruption spanning from S30W10 to S10W40. Liftoff seen starting at 2023-11-27T05:20Z in SDO AIA 304. Filamentary material seen leaving the surface, and post-eruptive brightening also seen in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 imagery. Moving field lines off the SW limb seen in SDO AIA 171 at 05:45Z. Dimming and ejecta seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 05:30Z. There is no clear evidence of a CME arrival in real time solar wind timelines at L1. There is however a slight chance that this CME combined with two later, more prominent, CMEs: 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001 and 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001but for the later combined arrival at 2023-11-30T23:29Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T12:05Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 556.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 612.528 Acceleration: -0.627436 Duration in seconds: 278229.76 Duration in days: 3.2202519 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.63 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 438.0 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 30/11/2023 Time: 12:05 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 34.43 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-11-29T01:39Z
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